If Not Trusting This Market Makes Me An Idiot: Then Call Me Crazy!

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I was left slack-jawed as I listened to an interview on financial media between the host and guest. I have always enjoyed as well as respected the host even though many times I may totally disagree. However, as for the guest being interviewed, not only did I disagree: I lost quite a bit of respect for.

During the interview the questions were posed as to why people (investors et al) harbor these feelings of angst as to whether or not they should get in, get out, etc,, etc. The guest then went on to use data points, math, trend references, and any other metric available within a snake oil sales bag as to prove his point: Where people not believing in this market rally along with those who’ve not participated are, (and I quote) “Idiots.” (more…)

An Introduction to Trading and Artificial Intelligence (by Mr. Wizard)

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This is a short primer on applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to your trading activities. AI can bring a fresh approach and a different perspective to anyone willing to invest the time and effort to learn how to combine some simple programming skills and common trading knowledge.

First off, I will fully admit that while I am not an expert in either trading or artificial intelligence, I know a bit about both, which is probably just enough to be dangerous. Furthermore, I will make the claim that being a mediocre programmer and a semi-skilled trader puts you ahead of either world-class programmers that know nothing about trading, or top-notch traders that do not understand the basic concepts, advantages, and limitations of AI. Think about your current skills and where the biggest bang for invested time lies. If you buy commercial AI trading software to save some effort, expect that just throwing some data and a few preselected indicators at it will not be very productive.

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Forget What They Say And Watch What They Do

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Once again we are breaking records on a near weekly basis. Week after week and sometimes daily new never before seen in the history of financial markets record prints. Yet, business people across the spectrum don’t feel it, nor are they buying it.

Should one be worried about this conundrum? Financial mavens say no. In earnest, most seem to insinuate one should “Just buy the all time highs and sleep like a baby.” Then again, that’s what they say all the time do they not?

So what is someone to do that doesn’t believe the hype or the meme “it’s different this time” and can’t get that feeling out of their gut for they know – it truly never is? (more…)

A Change in Tone

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“Well, you see Willard . . . In this war, things get confused out there, power, ideals, the old morality, practical military necessity. But out there with these natives, it must be a temptation to be god. Because there’s a conflict in every human heart, between the rational and the irrational, between good and evil. And good does not always triumph. Sometimes, the dark side overcomes what Lincoln called the better angels of our nature. Every man has got a breaking point. You and I have one. Walter Kurtz has reached his. And very obviously, he has gone insane.”

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Clothing Naked Experts

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“You know what the difference is between an Economist/Analyst, and a Business owner? When a Business owner makes a prediction on his or her business and is wrong – the business could wind up in bankruptcy. When the Economist/Analyst makes a wrong prediction about business – they just make another prediction.”

I may not be the first to express it, yet it seems more relevant today than ever before in light of what is now becoming abundantly clear to near anyone with the slightest hint of common sense. Most of the so-called “experts” paraded across the financial media as to espouse their wisdom on either financial markets, or the global economy: are blatantly naked for anyone to see. (more…)