A few years ago, Nassim Taleb and I followed each other on Twitter, and he was even kind enough to offer his respects on my deadlift PR.
Moving To The Next Screen
One thing I try to stress in these posts is that the movement of the market can, to a significant extent, be broken down into a series of inflection points and, depending on the outcomes at those inflection points, the market moves to the next inflection point or screen.
Last week there was a very nicely formed inflection point and the decision at that inflection point was made on Friday, with a smaller bull flag channel ultimately breaking up with a target at a retest of the short term high at 3184.15, and a larger bull flag channel also breaking up with a target at a retest of the June high at 3233.13. Both targets have now been reached, with the high today on SPX at a marginal higher high at 3235.32.
Was this good news for bulls? Well not necessarily no, as my bear scenario had a decline ideally into the 2880 area before a likely retest of the June high to set up a possible double top for this move up since the March low. As that retest has been done now instead, that possible double top has been set up earlier and SPX has arrived at this next inflection point.
(more…)Cooking the Books
This month’s blog is a little different — it’s co-written with my friend Marc Rubinstein. Marc is a highly talented analyst, ex Lansdowne Partners anmd writes a terrific blog on banks and financials which you should definitely subscribe to. Marc also is the tutor on our Banks Sector Course. In this blog, where he did all the hard work and write some more elegant prose than is customary in tehse pages, we take a look at Greensill, on paper one of the most valuable fintechs in Europe. What a story! It’s got it all: a Softbank angle, a BaFin angle (remember Wirecard last week?), a human interest angle (farmer turns billionaire) an element of financial engineering, and of course an accounting red flag issue.
New asset classes pop up all the time. Some, like common stocks, hit the big time; others fizzle out. What makes some asset classes durable and others a flash-in-the-pan is an interesting question.
(more…)THAT is a Shooting Star
Beyond the Pale
If there’s one place you would think the coolest, hippest, newest “thing” would get swarms of attention, it’s the Palo Alto Whole Foods. I visit there two or three times a week, and it occurred to me I never saw the darling of the stock market (for a while, at least) Beyond Meat. I finally found it hiding in the same obscure section as Miso and Kimchi. Here’s my photo:
