OK, Doomer

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I keep my eyes wide open all the time

I keep the ends out for the tie that binds

Because you’re mine, I walk the line

Johnny Cash

Complacency never higher. Fear never lower. New highs every day. Such is the market we’re in. In the future, we will look back at these times and marvel. For now, some of you can consider it as Normal As Apple Pie. It isn’t.

Below is the intraday chart of the ES. There are two things of note:

  1. I’ve tinted each successive downturn. In every case, its depth (in points) and length (in days) is smaller and smaller. It’s gotten to the point now where if the market does dip, it does so for literally just a few minutes. You can’t even see the dips anymore.
  2. I’ve marked with an arrow the lifetime high close, which just happens to be precisely on the underside of a trendline that goes back to the December 26 2018 Steve “I’m a shameless scumbag who would sell my soul for a buck” Mnuchin bottom. As always, click any image for a big version.
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Mortar & Pestle

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I’ve been in the markets since 1987. I thought the market was strange in 1999. I thought it was odd in 2007. But nothing – – nothing! – – comes even close to what we’re going through now. It’s like I’ve met people who were 2’3″ and 1’9″ and then met someone who was four micrometers high. There’s no comparison.

And thus, we’ve seen volatility pounded and pounded and pounded until it is at 11. And why not? Even the most empty-headed simpleton realizes that the Federal Reserve is directly pushing the market up every day, and Dow 30,000 is clearly in their sights. It makes great press. So here’s the sad state of the VIX:

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