Well the lower wedge trendline that I posted on Thursday night did mark Friday's low. However from the afternoon action it looks clear that it is not a wedge, but is instead an ascending triangle.
An ascending triangle has a 70% chance of breaking up, and that has to be increased by our going into opex week. If we can break the solid resistance at 1080, then the target for the triangle is 1097 with a 75% chance of reaching it:
That chart looks pretty bullish in the very short-term to me. Positive divergence on RSI & MACD, stochs still pointing up, the main declining channel broken, re-entered and then a close back above it. There is also an internal trendline that I have marked in black dotted line that has been broken and successfully retested.
If it wasn't for the treacherously quicksand-like feel of the market at the moment, I'd be very confident of significant upside next week, though the potential head and shoulder pattern building on Thursday and Friday within that ascending triangle is also worth a mention. In the event that we see a downside break out of the triangle, the H&S target is 1045 SPX (cash).
EURUSD has failed to make much headway since hitting the channel bottom on Friday 5th, and is still confined within the broadening descending wedge that has defined action for three weeks now:
The lower trendline wasn't hit on Friday, which doesn't tell us much as there are both bullish and bearish interpretations for that. The bullish take is that a partial decline in that wedge suggests an imminent break of the wedge to the upside. The bearish take of course is that we will hit the bottom of the wedge on Tuesday or Wednesday. Not much help there.
The copper chart nicely sums up where I think SPX looks to be now. A rise to the top of that channel and then a resumption of the powerful downtrend. Worth keeping an eye on this one. I will be shorting it:
