Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SDP and TWM

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For a moment, forgot all the funky stuff you know about double-inverse ETFs, and pretend the chart below was a plain old stock. Ask yourself this question: what you buy it? I would. And I have. A lot of it.

I've also bought into TWM, which I haven't done in a coon's age. I've set my stop to yesterday's low.

In spite of constant meetings, I am doing entries between them. My adoration of my readers is showing itself again.

CAT Stop

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I got stopped out of CAT this morning, and that's great. Why? Because I made a nice fat profit on it in just a few weeks, but I don't have to worry about blowing up that profit when the bear tumble resumes (if it hasn't already). Let's take a look at the chart:

 There are a few elements to look at here:

  1. The double-bottom you see highlighted with the rounded red rectangle was my signal to get in, particularly since the second bottom wasn't quite as low as the first. This makes for a nice clean entry with a very obvious stop price.
  2. The gap higher, which wasn't filled, was also an encouraging sign for this long position. I have shown this with yellow highlighting.
  3. As the arrow points out, I keep my longs (in this market) on a very short leash. I am very intolerant of any softness in my longs (OK, knock it off in the back row….…), so the stop was set at the low on the bar to which the arrow is pointing. That was violated today, so voom, like a rat out of an aqueduct.

That's it.

Tuesday Tally

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OK, this post isn't as late as I thought it would be. I got an opportunity to do a post.

One funny thing is that I notice that ProphetCharts finally (after all these years……..) has volume on the Dow 30 graph ($INDU). You'd think I would know about this! Oh, well. As you can see, volume continues to be completely tepid, and we're well past any "holiday season" excuse. Trading is dead compared to Q4 2008.

Most of the indexes are mushing up against their 23.6% retracement levels. Some are almost there; some are a smidge above. It's pretty evident that the bulls would like to take this rally to the next level, while the bears would love to see things roll over. I'd be more confident, of course, if we were at loftier levels……..930 on the S&P is hardly nosebleed height. But I'm positioned in many carefully-selected shorts just in case.

Looking at the SPY, we see a little better volume picture, with the activity getting stronger each consecutive day since December 23rd. I've highlighted in pink a reasonable amount of overhead supply. I think we've all been in more-or-less agreement that 1,050 is about the most ambitious goal the bulls could reach for the S&P, at least for the next few months, and that is the level which would represent the conquering of all that overhead supply.

One interesting thing is how steady the VIX has been. Around 39 seems to be the new normal for the VIX, whether the day is up or down. The concept of support and resistance seems to apply to the VIX here as well as it would a stock, since all the highs prior to September 2008 were at about that level (for a number of years, anyway).

I've noted how I thought commodities were ready to soften up. Not quite, I guess. But they still look very vulnerable. Look, for example, at the wheat and soybean meal charts below. I realize this isn't the normal venue to look at commodity charts, but in a market like this, having a notion as to what various asset classes are doing is valuable.

My bullishness on energy was a very good call, but I definitely abandoned my bullishness prematurely (having sold DIG, for example, several days ago). Looking at XLE below, it looks like we're at the upper range of the past several months.

Now as for gold, which I've been mentioning ad nauseum here lately, it certainly isn't in any hurry to plunge. The chart still looks solidly bearish, but boy this thing is being stubborn!

As I mentioned earlier today, the utilities were starting to intrigue me again. The Dow Jones US Utilities Index, on which the SDP is based (double-inverse ETF) is stalling at the mid-140s. Clearly if it pushes above this line, I'll exit my new SDP position, but this could turn into something interesting.

A couple of years ago, my posts would tend to be about me unearthing a chart or two which seemed bearish in a sea of bullishness. These days, there are simply too many charts and too many opportunities, so I'm more index-focused these days. I think I'll close it up here, but I'll see you in the morning.