Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Lights, Please?

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Argh. I'm more conflicted than ever about this market.

On one hand, looking at the charts, it seems a powerful rally is about to ensue. My speculation a few days ago that energy was going to be the place to be was absolutely right. Regretably, Thursday's gap down stopped me out of most of those positions, so I really didn't benefit from the insight. But as I am looking at charts this weekend, particularly ETFs, I cannot help but see very compelling long opportunities.

On the other hand…………..looking at charts on January 2nd, it seemed everything was ready to rock 'n' roll then, too. And it was at that exact moment that things fell absolutely to pieces. So I'm concerned about missing a great rally, and I'm also concerned about getting faked-out again. This kind of market is going to force all of us to become day-traders.

I can see two "real world" scenarios pushing things one way or the other. One scenario involves a credible (to most, at least) plan from Obama for setting things straight. The market rallies, and it has some follow-through. We might be able to fight our way back to 9,000 on the Dow (at which point I'd be much more comfortable shorting). Then the plunge could begin anew.

The other scenario – which, paradoxically, is better for the bulls – – is for one more Really Nasty Plunge to take place, mopping up all this bullish sentiment and allowing us to test (but not break) the November lows. What could cause this kind of plunge? Search me…….maybe a final wipe-out of the big commercial banks via nationalization. Whatever it is, that sort of "cleansing" process would make a great time to exit shorts and really load up on longs for a multi-month rally.

If God's listening, I'd like to cast my vote for that second scenario. I would be delighted to take big profits on existing shorts, load up on longs, and actually relax for a while as the market chugged higher.

Divine Justice

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Growing up, I was a radical. A radical capitalist, that is. Not many ten year old kids are acquainted with the notion of laissez-faire, but I was. Dog eat dog. Every man for himself. The whole schmear.

A few decades have mellowed me, but I'm still a passionate fellow, and I keep worrying those passions are going to do a polar reversal, and I'm going to wind up as America's Che Guevera.

Why? Because witness what the crooks have done to our country sickens me. I read about Jimmy Cayne (allegedly smoking pot, shooting rounds of golf, and playing bridge while BSC was collapsing), Ken Lewis (who caught the ultimate falling knife, paying $50 billion for MER all by itself and now has a combined BAC+MER which is worth only $40 billion just a few months later!), and John "the human chin" Thain. (whose antics you can read about here).

Years ago, when I'd see hapless Chinese bureaucrats dragged in front of courts and sentenced to draconian prison terms (or even death) for bribery and corruption, I would think what a savage government they must be. Not any longer. How many of you would tune in to see the top 50 profiteers from the sub-prime bubble be thrown into prison? (I'll leave out the idea of a public beheading, enticing as that might sound).

Some months ago, I mentioned that high-profile suicides would start to appear. They have. I think what's next is worse: outright murders. Would you really be surprised if Madoff ultimately met with an untimely death? He hasn't offed himself (incredibly). But how many people would like to get their hands on him?

Here's my idea………every day, for a month, nationally publish how much money (in total) each of, say, the top 100 folks who took advantage of the past few years made (and by "take advantage", I'm talking about those who lied or deceived or otherwise abused the system; not those who got rich honestly). Put them in the middle of an arena. Bus in 500 out-of-work Teamsters to surround them. Sell tickets to the public for the viewing stands. Let the Teamsters loose. Sound a trumpet. And let the show begin.