Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Damnation’s Celler

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Well, there's one thing you won't hear me squawking about anymore any time soon, and that's an "inverted head and shoulders" on the indexes. The prospect for that pattern was super December 8th, good on December 17th, quite good on January 6th, and since then has been positively squandered. It's dead, Jim.

Oh, incidentally, rest in peace, Ricardo Montalban. There never would have been "KHAAAAAAAN!!!!!" with you. You will be missed.

The Inaugural Fall

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I've been saying for weeks now that there would be a ramp-up to the Inauguration and that we would sink after that; this speculation was based on the anticipation of the public psychology, aping the same kind of behavior pre- and post-Election.

Well, you've probably figured out no "ramp up" has been happening. This had me puzzled, but a thought occurred to me: what if whatever buying support that might exist based on such an anticipation is simply holding the market up from even worse levels, and we do in fact see an acceleration of the drop after the Inauguration? I'm still a believer in "buy the rumor, sell the news," and I believe faith in "the New FDR" is as strong as ever. Perhaps a tumble after 1/20 is still in the cards. We'll know in a week!

Setting aside such musings……….I've gone long /ES at 832 with a stop at 828. All my other positions remain in place (pretty heavily on the bearish side). In spite of the market's drop over the past six days, I looked through all my "long shot" candidates, and unlike late November, when opportunities were everywhere, I only found a few symbols of interest on the long side, with stop prices shown after each:

AIB 4.56
ALD 2.94
APL 4.67
BLC 1.46
EP 6.74
GFIG 2.99
MGI .89
STX 3.98
TEN 1.95
YSI 3.47

That might seem like more than "a few", but on December 1, I had so many prospects that I had trouble buying them fast enough. As it is now, the pickings are leaner, and believe me, those symbols aren't anywhere close to slam-dunks.

Symbol BED

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Greetings from the house that charts built. Looking at the /ES (as we approach midnight here in Palo Alto), it is stubbornly holding above the ~832 level, so I've covered the short and am going to bed flat (which, I suppose, is really the best way to sleep).

If my fried brain holds up, I'm going to go through my charts now. But the paramedics might find me slumped over my keyboard in the morning.

Jobs as the Economic Totem

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I was sad to read in the comments section (which is pretty much where I get all my news these days) that Steve Jobs is going to be "on leave" from Apple. Let me tell you something – – – just as sure as I am that Obama is going to be a one-term President, I am of the opinion that Jobs' departure is going to be a permanent one; and that makes me sad.

As I've mentioned before, Steve Jobs is the other half of my pair of heroes (the other being George Carlin). When I was writing my Carlin eulogies, in the back of my mind, I was telling myself, "it won't be long before you're going to have to do one of these for Jobs too."

Now, I don't know any more about the man's health than anyone else out there. It's just a hunch. But his departure suggested to me how Jobs is a metaphor for the American economy.

When he and Wozniak put their little partnership together in 1976, it was a great time to start a business. Whoever thought in 1976 that starting a small company in the U.S. was a great idea? These guys were able to put something together and take on the world before anyone else knew what hit them. The economy had been fallow for so long, and although no one could have predicted it, the Reagan-infused 80s was going to usher in a fantastic resurgence of the entrepreneurial spirit. I hope, for our nation's sake, that the year 2016 feels like 1976 again. We could use it.

He was kicked out by (that schmuck) Sculley in 1985, by he made his triumphant return in 1997 as a "consultant." Then an "interim" CEO. And then the real thing. I feel his "interim" is going to get dropped from his departure as well.

What he was able to do from 1997 to 2007 was nothing short of miraculous. But the economy is in a death spiral, and I can't help but feel that Jobs is doing the same. It's like Elliott and E.T. "Mom, we're dying."

Anyway, I hate to be so morbid. But I think this is the beginning of the end, and it makes me sad. One day I'll have to write about the time I finally met the man, face to face. One on one. In a hardware store. It's an interesting little tale.