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A lot of folks have said if we can push back toward the November lows, it would represent a really good buying opportunity before the big push higher. I'm starting to notice that, in some cases, we're already there.
It's hard to believe that just Sunday afternoon, the /ES exploded higher to 864. I guess that was the Inaugural Rally. We're 60 points lower than that now. I've got a small short position right now, but I'm ready to reverse it if we cross above 808.
It's funny, because when I wasn't able to post that often, I was pathetically apologetic. Now that I'm able to post frequently, people are complaining about that too. You can't please 'em all, I guess.
I've saved myself two hours by deciding that it was OK for me not to read 8 billion comments over the past few days. I like them, but it's just too much to push through them all.
Overall, I am currently long 56 positions, short 58 positions, and have 67 options (every single one of them a put). A few of the "longs" are bearish, but on the whole, I've got a pretty even split. As I keep complaining, that means on days like today, which are a bonanza for unapologetic bears, my gains are far more muted.
The saddest one is my IRA, which is all high-risk bullish plays. Naturally a day like today means an entirely red screen. I took that little account from $47k at the end of 2007 to $300k at the end of 2008. It's at $275k now; hardly a washout, but it sure is taking it on the chin.
As I look at the charts, the words that keep coming to mind are……….squishy, oatmetal, flaccid. All the kinds of charts that would be dynamite (say, in a 1982 type environment, or late 1990, when things were ready to blast higher) just sort of fart around and then finally roll over. Really lame.
There's just no energy in this market. The bullish patterns turn into mush and die away.
As you can surmise from my short and put positions, there are still plenty of attractive opportunities on the short side, and I'm trying to take advantage of those. This is a market that needs to be managed day to day. This is not a Ron Popeil "set it……..and forget it!" kind of market. It's a lot of work, because stops have to be updated regularly, charts have to be analyzed and re-analyzed. It is time consuming. You, as a trader, actually have to work for your money in an environment like this.
Enough of my ramble. If I have more to say (or chart) later, I will.
Perhaps God is providing all of us a bit of foreshadowing, eh?
I am several days behind on reading comments; I'm curious to see what folks are saying! Anyway, a few more ideas.
I'll do a post later today to wrap things up.
Will do a third tranche later before the close.
