Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Commodities
To say my bearishness has not been serving me well lately is a huge understatement. I missed a nearly 80 point upward move in the S&P over the course of just a few days, and even my SRS trade – – entered just 15 minutes before today's close – – got blown out in no time!
I've moved into three very similar-looking commodity charts. I am toning down my bearishness (since I'm kind of fond of making profits) and am moving into these charts since they seem to have the best likelihood of a move upward.
Buying SRS
With all the chicanery going on, it seems a good time to get into SRS. I've got a stop on this at 48.17. And at least this one is widely-traded, unlike some other inverse ETFs I could name. (Purchase price of SRS: 2,000 @ 51.4473)
EUR Getting Tagged
"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep
its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The
Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely
to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some
time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that
the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing
starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers
and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand
appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial
markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide
liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit
conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The
Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will
begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are
significant."
Seventy Points
I've been bellyaching a lot lately about no trend, but now with a bit of perspective, we actually have had a nice upward trend since last Friday. A full 70 points in just a few trading sessions! I feel bad for having missed it (even worse – – fighting it!). I'll be interesting to see what, if any, effect the Fed's announcement has this afternoon. Someone commented recently that the only thing they'd have to announce is Bernanke's shopping list, since, at 0%, there's not much else to do.
