Real Estate Chart Bull and Bear

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I've mentioned URE (the ultra-bull real estate ETF) many times recently. To my eyes, this is one of the nicest charts I've seen in a while.


However, I put more credence into what the "normal" market is doing (not the "ultra" ETFs, which offer a distorted view, by their very nature). Looking at IYR, it seems to me that, yes, there may be some more upside here (green tinted area), but the risk is starting to outweigh the potential reward. I would get anxious to take profits in real estate holdings if IYR breached into the lower 50s anytime soon.