Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
As we amble our way toward Christmas (and, yes, it is "Christmas" – – – not "Holiday") things are getting progressively more quiet here on the blog; I don't expect traffic to pick back up until January 2nd. But I'll say this……….
Yes, I'm enthused about a large number of bullish patterns (for me, anyway), and I'm talking about plenty more long setups than I usually do. But, just to be clear, my multi-year view is still aiming for the target you see below:
My belief in certain techniques (and gurus) has definitely been shaken this year, but my long-term viewpoint has not. So, in case it isn't abundantly clear, I just wanted to say so.
Continued good luck with your wrapping and dinner preparation duties. We're hosting Christmas this year, so it's going to be a big one. Oh, and thanks for the beautiful Christmas ornaments, which I just received today.
Life really is stranger than fiction, isn't it? Who would have ever guessed last winter that we'd be looking at something like this?
Let's dust off the bearish nature of this blog a bit, shall we? My largest short position right now is XLU, on which I have an entry at 31.26 and a stop at 31.71; since something seems to be up with the bond market (hmmmmmmm!) XLU is just about the only big ETF down today.
Does it mean anything? Given the past ten months, probably not. But here it is:
I'm starting to wonder if I should more aggressively pursue the domain WallOfWorry.com since I keep focusing on bullish ideas instead of bearish ones. Anyway, I bought a largish block of URE earlier today. My chart-brain (bullish on this) conflicts with my state-of-the-world brain (real estate?!?!!?!?!?), but this is one of the finest charts I've seen in a while. A break above $6.99 would totally seal the deal.
Well, this is what it feels like to be in a plane with a shattered windshield and no instruments functioning. The charts have been down all day so far. They're getting close to having them fixed, but until then, we're just going to have to talk amongst ourselves……….
After seeing it mentioned many times in the comments section, I finally bought and started reading Fooled by Randomness, which I am enjoying tremendously. I just finished Section 1 of the book.
As I was reading it last night, a quote on page 126 just about knocked me off my feet (and would have, were it not for the fact I was reading it in bed). It is as follows:
A theory that does not present a set of conditions under which it would be considered wrong would be termed charlatanism – it would be impossible to reject otherwise. Why? Because the astrologist can always find a reason to fit the past event, by saying that Mars was probably in line but not too much so (likewise to me a trader who does not have a point that would make him change his mind is not a trader).
Can you imagine what two words instantly sprang to my mind? They rhyme with "Melliott Crave." Not to say that I've reached any kind of final conclusion personally, but I've got to say again, those words really resonated in a way that I bet a lot of readers here can understand.