Trap-Like Pattern in VIX (Mike Paulenoff)

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We have to be impressed with the market's resiliency yesterday after hitting new recovery highs, because weakness thereafter has been very much contained, at least so far. That said, however, I am "concerned" about the "trap-like" pattern that has developed in the hourly Volatility Index (VIX). Let's notice that the VIX made multi-month lows this morning at 22.70, but has since climbed back above 23.20, which so far has "trapped" VIX bears (SPX bulls).

In the event the SPX rolls over into a deeper correction later this afternoon or in overnight trading, and the VIX climbs above 24.70/80, the VIX will have put in a powerful upside reversal immediately after violating a major Double Bottom June-July low. Such a scenario is all the more likely given the glaring downside failure of RSI momentum to confirm the multi-month low in the VIX. Let's watch this relationship closely in the upcoming hours.

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