I confess to a growing fear that the bulls are going to take this market and run with it for the rest of the year. The action for the past month has been very positive for the bulls, and the next hurdle – across above 1130 – looks to be just about effortless at this point.
I’ve tinted that easy goal in green. The magenta tint, if crossed, would be even more profoundly damaging to the bear case. Finally, a cross of the cyan tint would firmly entrench bears in their role as a laughingstock. It’s not a pretty picture.
At the same time, the volatility index is back to levels that were very typical before the 2007-2008 crisis even took place. It’s as if nothing ever happened.
It seems to me that all eyes are on the jobs report, so Thursday might turn into a relatively quiet session ahead of that Friday morning report. Of course, the chatter now is that the jobs report is basically moot, since a bad report will goose the government in yet-another-bullish-stimulus, whereas a good report will excite people about the “green shoots’ yet again.
So, in spite of a bevy of really attractive bearish charts, the fact is that if the market in general (that is, the Dow and the S&P) keep pushing higher, that overall strength will snuff out the bearishness of even the most tantalizing patterns. The Dow 30 is not far away from rendering its entire head and shoulders pattern irrelevant.
So I’m in pretty low spirits right now. I think I’m going to call it a day at this point. If you guest writers out there want to pick up the pace, I’d appreciate it, because Springheel Jack is about the only one writing these days (which I appreciate, of course). Good evening, all.