Tomorrow is the big day, of course. Powell time again. Two hours before the market closes, the announcement rolls out, and half an hour later, he does his press conference. As always, caution will prevail, and every syllable will be selected carefully. Added to which, whatever movements the market makes immediately following the announcement won’t mean much. It usually takes until at least the market close before some kind of clarity is there with respect to reaction.

For many months, the 10-year minus 3-month has been recovering from its “a recession is here” depths.