Since I consider Jerome Powell to be the very personification of evil made flesh, I assumed I would wake up to some kind of fiasco this morning. Incredibly, as I type this before the opening bell, we still have a lovely sea of red, particularly with the market I’ve been obsessed about for weeks: crude oil.
Looking at a longer-term picture (as opposed to the minute bar above), we can se that oil has done a magnificent job of following its pattern. I’m inclined to sell the XLE puts I bought yesterday, but we shall see.
A few people have asked questions about my crude oil bearishness, which puzzles me to death, since I’ve written about it ad nauseum for eons now. Since some of you evidently missed it the first 50,000 times I shared the chart, below is the very long-term crude oil continuous contract, which has obeyed its trendline admirably. I find the notion that energy stocks are about to go into some kind of rally to be patently preposterous. On the contrary, I think they are in for an absolutely hellish 2022.
The ES has formed a pretty decent reversal top, but of course this is going to be the one item Powell wants to control the most of all. As of this moment, it is already 22 points “off the lows” from last night, and I daresay the printing presses at the Eccles Building are running red-hot to try to push this thing as high as possible. My core belief, however, is that the forces of Truth and Reality (that would be me and like-minded Slopers) will conquer the forces of Deception and Fraud (Powell). This is a situation which demands constant and careful observation.