Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Turn

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The two important headlines I saw today both came from Our Dear Leader Powell.  In his testimony today, Chairman Powell declared that “It is time to retire the word transitory regarding inflation”, and “the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown.”  Finally, he added that the Fed “can consider wrapping up the taper a few months sooner.

The fact that inflation is here is no shock to the average American, but to hear it come out of the Fed Chairman’s mouth was a bit shocking today.  Also, the idea of speeding up the taper has not been priced into markets.  I believe soon we’ll be hearing Chairman Powell begin to broach the topic of raising interest rates sooner than expected as well.

So, what does this mean for markets going forward, and are we at a key turning point?  If the Fed is now moving to a stance of acknowledging a persistent inflation problem, logic would dictate that a policy response would follow.

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Approaching Key Support

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I was talking in my last post on Friday about the likely mean reversion move coming that should at least return SPX to a backtest of the 45dma, now at 4549. The low so far today has taken SPX down to the 4565 area, so that is getting close, and SPX is now in an area where it may turn back up, though I think a test of 4540 is likely at minimum before that happens.

SPX daily vs 45dma chart:

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This Is Why I Stopped

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I admit, I had a tiny bit of envy this morning when I saw gold rocketing higher, because there’s a soft spot in my heart for the stuff. But, over the years, that soft spot has become much harder since gold seems to do one thing well: DISAPPOINT. And, sure enough, as I glance at the updated chart for just this one trading day, that jealousy has completely vanished. Some things never change. Gold can only suck, no matter how it tries.