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At the moment, I want the same thing I’m guessing you want: Clarity. Thursday’s rally was annoying. After sleeping on it, I would best characterize yesterday’s action as Wall Street feeding on itself. Nothing fundamental that I’m aware of changed in financial markets yesterday, and thus my overall view of markets did not change either. Let’s take a look at where we’re at, and where we’re heading. The market is moving fast, so I am writing this on Friday at 9:30am CST.
Let’s start by looking at the /CL to /ES analog, and the /GC to /CL analog. The /CL analog looks back at what /CL was doing 10 years ago to give us a useful echo for what we can expect directionally in /ES. I have circled on the below chart where we are currently, as well as where the expected bottom is (the election). This analog gives clues about direction, not magnitude, and it continues to point aggressively lower into the mid-term elections in November. After the election, the analog points to an uptrending /ES market into the summer of 2023.
Today’s market is in a straight to the point kind of mood, so I’ll get right to it. $XLE is currently trading at 81.24. I expect it to trade down to 57.60, the October 2021 POC, by November of this year. That would be a 29% gain if you shorted $XLE from here. Let’s take a look as to why I expect that outcome.
Well, by popular demand I feel compelled to share my thoughts on the great state of California. I must say I love the idea of Californians visiting the South, and sharing their experiences. And people from the Southeast doing vice versa. So here we go, without further ado.
I will spare you with the reasons for my visit to the Bay Area, but I did recently spend a week in our host’s beloved Bay Area. I had been to California once before when I was growing up. My family took a trip out west. We visited Los Angeles, and then drove up the coast to spend a few days in San Francisco. This was in the mid 1980’s. We loved it. I remember being on a stage recording of Star Trek at Universal Studios. My sole purpose was to be “the kid trapped and drop 1,000 gallons of water on.” Yeah, that was me. It’s a fun video to watch now. I also remember the Redwood Forest, and really liking the architecture in San Francisco. It was good trip.
Every morning before the market opens I spend about an hour looking through the charts of all the stocks and ETFs that I follow. This morning I was looking back at how some of the bounce plays I mentioned in the my “August Bounce” video. Many of the ARKK-related plays had large runs, such as AXON and ADBE. However one ETF looked slightly different to me this morning… MSOS.
This market has that kind of a feel to it right now. What kind of feel is that Rev? This kind. Something just isn’t quite right. The scene below is from a resurrected favorite of mine: Wag the Dog. It delves into the man behind the curtain that tickles our synapses that something just doesn’t add up. I feel like our market at the moment isn’t being completely forth-coming, just like Mr. DeNiro and Hoffman. With that said, the cast to this movie was amazing, and also included Anne Heche. My condolences to her family.