Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Ambiguity

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am·bi·gu·i·ty

/ˌambəˈɡyo͞owədē/

noun

  1. the quality of being open to more than one interpretation; inexactness.

Learning to deal with ambiguity is a key skill for the trader and investor.  We like certainty.  It makes us feel good.  The first time when something we are certain of in the market goes the opposite direction it can be wildly jarring.  Growth is possible here, the results of which can be very profitable.  This is where learning to identify and manage ambiguity is key.  Understanding this about your inner makeup is a key first step.

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Timber!

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Rev can talk about something other than gold? Yes, yes he can… When’s the last time you looked at lumber prices and their implications on interest rates? There’s a correlation? Yes, there is.

First, let’s take a long term look at lumber prices. Below is a ten year chart of lumber prices. From their early 2009 bottom at 137.9, lumber prices rose steadily, but not dramatically for the next few years. However, after their 2015 bottom, lumber would start a three year rise that would culminate in their 2018 blowoff top at 648.5.

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The Golden Volcano

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Did you feel that?  The earth is rumbling.  I can feel it beneath my feet.  Over the past couple weeks, gold saw a significant breakout. 

After consolidating a base for the past six years, gold’s breakout has a measured move target of $1,683.  There is a large volume by price gap between here and there, so we could get there rapidly.

Looking at the long term twenty year chart, we can notice a couple takeaways.  First, the bull market in gold at the beginning of the century lasted from 2001-2011.  The bear market in gold lasted from 2011-2015.  I would suggest with this month’s breakout, we have begun a new bull market in gold that will run from 2016-?

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Golden Rumblings

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Greetings from Revolution headquarters!  I am excited to be back in the friendly confines of Middle Tennessee, after a week of travels.  The faithful Reverend of Tennessee has heard your cries, and is ready to take a look at our favorite shiny metal. 

The gold miners have enjoyed a solid, albeit tempered, uptrend for the past seven months.  After a rough end to this week, I started to hear the fear-mongering  begin from the corners of the Slope.  Oh ye, of little faith.  As we enter a new month and quarter, come walk with the Rev and let’s find a way to profit.

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2018 – The Lurking Bear

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I hope you’re having a wonderful weekend, my Slope family.  The Rev was a little under the weather this week, so my usual radio voice will have to be replaced by some illuminating keystrokes.

Before the year ends, I wanted to take a brief look back at the last six month, but more importantly, at the year ahead that awaits us.  In my last market update, from June 23rd of this year, we discussed the continuing bull market in SPX and how it was following nicely the 10 year crude oil analog.  We forecasted continued strength in SPX, as a period of sideways consolidation was likely to breakout to new highs before year end.  SPX closed on 6/23 at 2438, and currently trades at 2675. Voila! The crude oil analog in practice. (more…)

BEARded Grace

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There are few experiences in this life that will more fully expose your strengths and weaknesses like trading the markets… Mentally, emotionally, spiritually, even physically.

Before we move forward, let’s take a look back. Do you remember where you were in Oct/Nov 2014, and what was happening in the markets?  The market was doing something that it had never done before.  It was making a record number of daily advances.  Day after day, after day…like the market had never before seen in recorded history.  It was also the time when ATR-based trading was birthed out of the pain of my unseen bias.  My trading moved from fundamental, to technical, and then to unbiased trading based on ATR. (more…)

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