Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
False Dawn
I think a bounce started on Friday. /ES saw three weeks of sideways consolidation between 3800-3900, after breaking back under 3900 in mid-December. I had hoped for a short term thrust lower last week to put in a noticeable short term bottom. That didn’t happen. What we got instead was the 3800 level holding as support. There is very little support at the 3800 level. I see it as a short term phenomenon.
First, let’s take a look at the daily chart of SPY below. Highlighted in red are the three clusters of monthly POCs that I consider to be key levels of support/resistance. Also noted are monthly value high/low for SPY. Value high is at 397.28, and value low is at 376.21. The good news for bears is that under the lows of the past few weeks, there is really no meaningful support for quite some time. For the moment though, I think the bounce needs to be respected until the recent lows give way.
(more…)Clarity
At the moment, I want the same thing I’m guessing you want: Clarity. Thursday’s rally was annoying. After sleeping on it, I would best characterize yesterday’s action as Wall Street feeding on itself. Nothing fundamental that I’m aware of changed in financial markets yesterday, and thus my overall view of markets did not change either. Let’s take a look at where we’re at, and where we’re heading. The market is moving fast, so I am writing this on Friday at 9:30am CST.
Let’s start by looking at the /CL to /ES analog, and the /GC to /CL analog. The /CL analog looks back at what /CL was doing 10 years ago to give us a useful echo for what we can expect directionally in /ES. I have circled on the below chart where we are currently, as well as where the expected bottom is (the election). This analog gives clues about direction, not magnitude, and it continues to point aggressively lower into the mid-term elections in November. After the election, the analog points to an uptrending /ES market into the summer of 2023.
(more…)Big Opportunity In Oil
Today’s market is in a straight to the point kind of mood, so I’ll get right to it. $XLE is currently trading at 81.24. I expect it to trade down to 57.60, the October 2021 POC, by November of this year. That would be a 29% gain if you shorted $XLE from here. Let’s take a look as to why I expect that outcome.
California is Not the Devil?
Well, by popular demand I feel compelled to share my thoughts on the great state of California. I must say I love the idea of Californians visiting the South, and sharing their experiences. And people from the Southeast doing vice versa. So here we go, without further ado.
I will spare you with the reasons for my visit to the Bay Area, but I did recently spend a week in our host’s beloved Bay Area. I had been to California once before when I was growing up. My family took a trip out west. We visited Los Angeles, and then drove up the coast to spend a few days in San Francisco. This was in the mid 1980’s. We loved it. I remember being on a stage recording of Star Trek at Universal Studios. My sole purpose was to be “the kid trapped and drop 1,000 gallons of water on.” Yeah, that was me. It’s a fun video to watch now. I also remember the Redwood Forest, and really liking the architecture in San Francisco. It was good trip.
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