Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

About To Crash?

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A decade ago I was seemingly always on the lookout for a crash.  It’s not a profitable long term strategy.  In recent years I literally found myself resisting the urge to participate in crash “theology”.  In most cases I would find if I paused, those moments would likely mark important bottoms.

The curious thing that happens mentally when you make that transition over a period of years, is that as I resist the urge to participate in a move that is getting away to the downside I begin to recognize more clearly when I’m out of step with the market.  I experienced that today.  The market had many good reasons to continue bouncing higher today.  It didn’t.  Today’s break of key support I imagine caught a lot of people off guard.  This is the environment where crashes are possible.

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Bonds. James Bonds.

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Well, happy Sunday Slope. Yesterday was an absolutely amazingly beautiful day here in Nashville. I think we were in the mid-80’s, and nothing but clear blue skies. I spent the day going into downtown Nashville to enjoy being outside. It was so nice to see Nashville bustling with masses of maskless people once again just enjoying life. (Editor’s note: agreed! On and on the plane! What a pleasure!)

In today’s article we’re going to take a look at my new friend, TLT. For those of you that have never traded TLT before, it is an ETF that tracks the long end of the US Treasury bond curve. It looks at bonds of 20 years and longer. Not exactly a high flying tech stock, eh? It’ll pay the bills.

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The Oil Top

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Well, happy weekend Slopeland!  I hope it has been a good start to 2022 for you.  It has certainly been an interesting and profitable year thus far, which brings me to today’s post.  I try to compose posts around what I perceive to be key turning points in markets, and I think our current market qualifies.  Today, I want to try to bring some closure to what has been my baby of late… crude oil.  I will also discuss interest rates, and the outlook for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.  Let’s take a look!

Below is a one year chart of the monstrosity that has become crude oil.  I have been heavily involved in the energy space for nearly two years now, coming off the Covid crash low.  On Monday through Wednesday of last week I sold off all of my energy-related positions.  Why did I do that, and what do I think is ahead for the oil market?

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The Turn

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The two important headlines I saw today both came from Our Dear Leader Powell.  In his testimony today, Chairman Powell declared that “It is time to retire the word transitory regarding inflation”, and “the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown.”  Finally, he added that the Fed “can consider wrapping up the taper a few months sooner.”

The fact that inflation is here is no shock to the average American, but to hear it come out of the Fed Chairman’s mouth was a bit shocking today.  Also, the idea of speeding up the taper has not been priced into markets.  I believe soon we’ll be hearing Chairman Powell begin to broach the topic of raising interest rates sooner than expected as well.

So, what does this mean for markets going forward, and are we at a key turning point?  If the Fed is now moving to a stance of acknowledging a persistent inflation problem, logic would dictate that a policy response would follow.

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Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

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Writing for me is kind of like a dam bursting.  The lake fills up, fills up, and then all at once there is an earthquake in me that causes the dam to break and all the water comes rushing out.  Of late, I have been getting requests to write more from all sides of my life.  I will say that due to some positive life changes coming down the pike, I will be having much more free time beginning next year.  I have many thoughts at the moment on how to use that time, but would be interested in your feedback.  At the moment I am considering either a weekly Youtube broadcast to discuss my trading and methodology, or a weekly hour long meeting for traders to gather together live on a platform such as Discord.  If you have any interest in either of those, I would be interested to hear your comments below.

Alright, on to the main course.  Today I am going to be examining my three areas of specialty:  SPX, oil, and gold.  I believe each have the potential to be at key turning points.  Let’s take a look as to why, and what we can expect going forward from each.

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