As I’m typing this, the jobs report came out about half an hour ago. I woke up a little before the report was released, and since that time, it seems to me the four has gone through four psychological stages:
Anticipation: ES down about 15 points. The market’s inner voice: “Gosh, I’m worried about these numbers. Yesterday was a really rough day. Maybe these numbers will give the market a chance to rally from these deeply-oversold levels.”
Indecision: ES up about 3 points. The market’s inner voice: “Hmm, these numbers are a mixed bag. There is really strong jobs growth, which lets the Fed keep cranking up rates, but it’s really hard to figure out.”
Relief: ES up about 10 points. The market’s inner voice: “Ya know what, this is good news after all! I mean, look at this wage growth! It’s only 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. Hey, maybe it’ll be a good day!”
Epiphany: ES down about 40 points. The market’s inner voice: “Who am I kidding? What goddamned difference does a tenth of a point in a single highly-manipulated report mean? This market is completely doomed, and being wet-nursed for the past thirteen years has made me soft, weak, and insipid. I’m a bad person. I don’t deserve to live. I hope I get trapped in an elevator with Jim Cramer, and the elevator’s cable breaks, and we ae falling to our deaths, and in our final moments, he confesses his love for me, forcing a tongue kiss, which compels me to kill myself even though the elevator will do it in just another few moments.”
OK, maybe I’m reading too much into that last one, but I’m pretty sure that’s what the market is thinking.
Here is this drama in minute bar form:
Obviously I’d like this to continue, since I am entering the day in both portfolios loaded to the teeth with bearish positions. Honestly, if we just keep falling, this is going to be so boring, because I have no money left to trade. Zilch.
Time to walk the dogs Best of luck to all bears today. Everyone else: screw ’em.
