The past six trading days have been absolutely bonkers. Starting a week ago, I started to get freaked out that we were going to go into some kind of counter-trend rally. God knows, everyone has been predicting it. And this morning’s no different. My Twitter feed is slathered with “we’re going to 4,400′ type predictions. Such predictions have cost me staggering sums of foregone profits recently.
Of course, the bears have absolutely owned this market for 2022, and this week in particular. For all the dramatic hoo-ha about the $3.2 trillion OpEx, equity futures are picking their noses with about 1% price gains pre-market.
The big victory, of course, was yesterday, because on the heels of a wildly successful FOMC propaganda event, the equity bulls were beautifully poised to run with this thing (see bullish base below). They quite clearly failed in a way that only bulls are capable of failing, and we went utterly limp. As of this moment, we’re basically lingering beneath Wednesday’s lows.
You can see an even more spectacular flop on the /NQ, which the bulls managed to blast above with some gusto, only to see it completely fart itself to death.
My positioning remains heavily short energy, all of which trades have become deeply profitable. I’m pleased this morning to see the horizontal line I laid down earlier act as PERFECT resistance to last night’s rally. I mean………WOW! Almost to the penny!
You can see here on the crude oil chart has this role reversal (support becoming resistance) has played out.
Portfolio-wise, from me:
- Big account has 30 bearish positions
- Average expiration is 146 days (!!!!!!!) out
- I am in 10% cash but am going to be trimming back, perhaps substantially
- My personal account has just one position, which is long LABU
- I am up a Satanic 66.6% for the year so far.
