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An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making).
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
A reminder that on average, the seasonal pattern for SPX rises into year end, pulls back, ticks a new high early in the year, pulls back and then rallies into the ‘sell in May/June’ time frame. If only a seasonal average were a predictor. But it isn’t. It’s a historical average, a long-term bias, subject to failure in any given year.
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