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This is quite interesting: it shows, among tastytrade users, what their guesses were for each of the quarters of the S&P 500 in the year 2023. As you can see, the preponderance of guesses were much lower than reality (I count myself among them!)
Below is a simple chart of the NASDAQ 100, with a vertical line separating one calendar year from the next. The years were 1999 and 2000. Put yourself in the head of some permabear weirdo like myself, on the heels of an insane, crazy rally. You figure 2000 CAN’T be anything like 1999. It just can’t.
And, sure enough, blammo, the selling starts! Yay! The bear market is here! And yet……..the damned thing went up another 40% in a matter of weeks! AIEEEEEE!!!
I present to you Bill Holdings (symbol BILL) which has climbed about 35% in the past couple of months. I would like to suggest that the approach of this price gap makes the risk/reward ratio of going bearish on this sucker fairly appealing, particularly considering that its entire lifespan seems to have been nothing more than the act of forming a huge top.
Below is the chart EMB, which is the fund of emerging market bonds. .As with all assets over the past ten weeks, it has been a straight shot up. Allow me to quietly point out the proximity of the present price level to its broken long-term trendline. I’m thinking that’s about all she wrote on this rally.
I hope everyone had a great holiday. I’ve had an enjoyable time at home with my three (adult) children. We’re not religious, but it is always a good time to see and enjoy family.
One slightly strange thing to the Brit eye about Christmas is that over here and in much of Europe the day after Christmas is a significant holiday too, always a Bank Holiday and called Boxing Day here. The odd thing is that Boxing Day doesn’t exist in the US and is an immediate return to trading the day after Christmas Day. That kind of works for me though, as I enjoy my work, and the days between Christmas and New Year are a good time to prepare for what is often a very interesting January. In my view the odds favor seeing an interesting January this time.
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