Over a period of many years, what percentage of days is the stock market up versus down? Any guesses? Given what we’ve seen over the past decade, my intuition is something like 95% to 5%, although lately more like 100% to 0%. The truth is actually 54% to 46%, which I know is very hard to believe, but that’s what the data says.
This month (the ostensible “Sell in May and Go Away” era) the market goes up every single tic. We are now, as you well know, at levels never seen before in human history across the board.
Since the Halloween bottom, the market has blasted about 1,000 points higher on the S&P. There have been four instances in which we had a “Fib to Fib” retracement, but those brief periods – – typically a couple of weeks – – were just an opportunity for the bulls to catch a breath before proceeding upward. Those “I turned $400 into $15,000” posts on /wallstreetbets don’t come from nowhere, you know.
What’s especially vexing about this latest bear-tease is that we’ve pushed into uncharted territory. At least before we had the Fibs to work with for support and resistance. Now it’s like we’re on the 102nd yard line in a football game and have to figure things out on our own.
And, over the course of four years, volatility has been pummeled, strangled, and mauled from over 80 to almost 10. That’s pathetic beyond my ability to describe. There is no fear. With all a pitch-black future ahead, the people of Earth seem to have assumed we’re heading some kind of science fiction utopia. It is quite literally insane.
We are, of course, well past the earnings season, and we’re also in a bit of an economic data desert right now. The market’s movements will just be up to – – well, let’s face it – – the present administration, who has since 2008 crafted the equity market into nothing more than a political tool. That’s why crooks like Pelosi have become incredibly rich, since the United States is no better than the old Soviet Union with respect to government corruption and graft. Stocks used to be a healthy gauge of forthcoming economic prospects. Now it’s just another big, garish building on The Strip in Vegas.
