I just noticed that, a few days ago, I did my 39,000th post! The market has been too fun lately for me to notice. Oh, well. There’s always 40,000 as a milestone. Let’s look at some indexes. I’m afraid it’s a bit of a mixed bag of maybe this, maybe that.
The NASDAQ Composite has been crumbling at various speeds for many days in a row, but it may be approaching a modest level of support by way of the price gap (horizontal dashed green line). Slicing through this would open up the door for challenging the August 5th lows sometime this month. Wouldn’t that be something?
The NASDAQ 100 has already broken its price gap with some gusto yesterday. I think the opportunity for lower prices has already been introduced, and that’ll even be accelerated or briefly detained by way of the Friday pre-open jobs report.
The S&P 100 is, as with the NASDAQ Composite, approaching a minor level of support in the form of that price gap. Tuesday’s hard tumble rattled the nerves of the bulls, so I think the bears have the upper paw for now.
The small caps have been a horse of a different color when compared to other big indexes. Here, the Russell 2000 has found a happy home at a major Fibonacci level. This lends credence to the notion of a VERY short-lived bounce, but failing this level would put the wind at the bears’ backs.
The S&P 500 index is more important than the others, and although it has a price gap for support as well, at least there’s some daylight between present price levels and the gap. I would also note that Wednesday’s high neatly respected the resistance created by the prior couple of weeks’ trading activity.
As long as I am wringing my hands with worry, I’ll also note that the VIX had a terrific rip higher but perhaps it was too far, too fast. The good news is that the VIX seems to have hammered out a nice, firm low and we won’t have to be dealing with sub-VIX nonsense anymore. On the contary, we’ve formed lower highs, and I’ve got a hunch in the weeks, or even days, ahead, we will push through that August 5th peak and create the “higher highs” part of the scenario as well.
Lastly, and most encouragingly, the Broker/Dealer index looks pitch perfect. This is a perfect repulsion off the apex of a symmetric triangle, and I anticipate a steady slippage of prices ahead.
Two more trading days to go this week! Good luck!
