I really twisted myself into an emotional knot yesterday. I kept asking myself: "What's wrong with you? Why are you being so feeble?"
The stone-cold fact of the matter is this: I look at a lot of charts, and maybe I'm just too blinkered to see them, but I have found virtually no compelling bullish setups, whereas the bearish setups seem like manna from heaven. In my experience, the kinds of items I am short are just the kind that tumble swiftly with any market weakness.
The problem is that for the past eight days, there hasn't been any lasting weakness.
But I am not "running scared." At the moment, I have 43.79% of my cash buying power deployed into positions, 100% of them short, with one position – XLU – being, the largest non-leveraged position I've ever had in my life.
Obviously I would hope to look back on this era at market history and pat myself on the back for being stalwart. Of course, I could also look back at this time as simply being right in the middle of an inexorable grind to 50,000 on the Dow. (Kidding, kidding……..)
As I'm typing this, two hours before the opening bell, it at least seems that the /ES and EUR are pointing in a good direction. But what I certainly know from recent experience is that these – – errr – – "red shoots" can vanish swiftly.
