True story: I was in my garage a couple of days ago, putting something away, when I noticed a Time magazine lying around. On the cover was a picture of a rope, with just one thread left, and someone hanging on with both hands. The title was "Hanging On For Dear Life." The date? March 9, 2009. Naturally! I am a big believer in the Conver Contrary Indicator. I can't wait for Time to come out with a huge smiley happy face with the headline Obama Saved the Day (or Geithner, or whomever………) That will be suitable for framing.
I was staring at a long-term S&P chart today, and a chilling thought struck me: "What if we're simply forming a major base right now, just like in late 2002 and early 2003? What if we start to fall about now, bounce at around 750, start to move higher, and never look back?" Here's what I mean. This is the chart of the S&P in 2002/2003. I've put a green highlight on the "we are here now" zone, equating this chart with today's.
Now here's the actual S&P from the present day, with the same green tinted area. I've roughed out with arrows what a "2003-style" ascent would resemble. In case it's not terribly obvious, 2003-2007 were up, up, up.
I think it's important to keep an open mind. I am very, very guilty of being married to the idea of a fake-out top for all the bulls happening this year, followed by a "this must be the end of the world" style plunge. So opening my eyes up to the idea that such an event will never happen, and that instead we'll be marching toward 2,000 on the S&P, rattles me badly. But I've got to be open to any prospect.
The Dow Jones chart tells a very different story. In this very long-term chart, my oft-cited target for the low 4,000s on the Dow still rings true.
I'll probably only say this about ninty more times or so in the coming weeks, but the game plan I'm working with is:
- Start falling, right about now, to the high 700s on the S&P;
- Stabilize and then start climbing again, this time to 1,000 or a little above;
- Ample around there for a bit, put on my bear suit, and short everything that has a ticker symbol, profiting from the ensuing devastation.
