OK, this post isn't as late as I thought it would be. I got an opportunity to do a post.
One funny thing is that I notice that ProphetCharts finally (after all these years……..) has volume on the Dow 30 graph ($INDU). You'd think I would know about this! Oh, well. As you can see, volume continues to be completely tepid, and we're well past any "holiday season" excuse. Trading is dead compared to Q4 2008.
Most of the indexes are mushing up against their 23.6% retracement levels. Some are almost there; some are a smidge above. It's pretty evident that the bulls would like to take this rally to the next level, while the bears would love to see things roll over. I'd be more confident, of course, if we were at loftier levels……..930 on the S&P is hardly nosebleed height. But I'm positioned in many carefully-selected shorts just in case.
Looking at the SPY, we see a little better volume picture, with the activity getting stronger each consecutive day since December 23rd. I've highlighted in pink a reasonable amount of overhead supply. I think we've all been in more-or-less agreement that 1,050 is about the most ambitious goal the bulls could reach for the S&P, at least for the next few months, and that is the level which would represent the conquering of all that overhead supply.
One interesting thing is how steady the VIX has been. Around 39 seems to be the new normal for the VIX, whether the day is up or down. The concept of support and resistance seems to apply to the VIX here as well as it would a stock, since all the highs prior to September 2008 were at about that level (for a number of years, anyway).
I've noted how I thought commodities were ready to soften up. Not quite, I guess. But they still look very vulnerable. Look, for example, at the wheat and soybean meal charts below. I realize this isn't the normal venue to look at commodity charts, but in a market like this, having a notion as to what various asset classes are doing is valuable.
My bullishness on energy was a very good call, but I definitely abandoned my bullishness prematurely (having sold DIG, for example, several days ago). Looking at XLE below, it looks like we're at the upper range of the past several months.
Now as for gold, which I've been mentioning ad nauseum here lately, it certainly isn't in any hurry to plunge. The chart still looks solidly bearish, but boy this thing is being stubborn!
As I mentioned earlier today, the utilities were starting to intrigue me again. The Dow Jones US Utilities Index, on which the SDP is based (double-inverse ETF) is stalling at the mid-140s. Clearly if it pushes above this line, I'll exit my new SDP position, but this could turn into something interesting.
A couple of years ago, my posts would tend to be about me unearthing a chart or two which seemed bearish in a sea of bullishness. These days, there are simply too many charts and too many opportunities, so I'm more index-focused these days. I think I'll close it up here, but I'll see you in the morning.
