Pendulum

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Allow me to start off what is intended as an economic musing by referring to a favorite comic of mine, Patton Oswalt. He has a fairly new bit in which he explains the Trump phenomenon as a totally understandable response to the Obama presidency.

The political pendulum in America, deep in the throes of the financial crisis, had swung so far that the United States elected its first black President, and a rather progressive one. After eight years of that, the “mirrored” response was to elect a political novice known principally as the billionaire star of a reality television show.

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Five Thousand a Foot

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It’s been a while since I’ve written a Crazy Palo Alto Real Estate post. However, I just saw an ad in our little local paper that compelled me to take keyboard in hand and offer you the latest tidbit from my fair city.

I present to you the following house: it’s a pleasant place, about 3,000 square feet and on a 2/3rds of an acre lot. In many parts of the country, that’s a postage stamp, but in Palo Alto, it’s “park-like.” Take a moment to drink in this property. As I say, pleasant enough, but not exactly spectacular.

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China Rejoinder (by Binkius Hippo)

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Hi, Tim: You recently posted an email, “A Response to China Deal” and the article is so misleading and paints such a false narrative that I have to wonder if it’s a Communist Party cyber-ops fake news attempt to obfuscate the truth. If you could post my rebuttal, I would appreciate it.

Let me start with this introductory pre-amble. The single largest problem with business in China is not the negotiations, not the contracts, nor the law. Very simply, what matters in the end is if the terms of the agreement are Verifiable and Enforceable. It doesn’t matter what you agree to, what you sign, or what the law is in China. What matters is if the deal you have made is Verifiable and Enforceable. If you can’t get this, all you got are seashells.

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Deconstructing the Crypto Genius

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James Altucher, the self-described “crypto genius”, is someone about whom I’ve written in the past, but as I gaze upon the smoldering landscape that used to be the thriving cryptocurrency industry, I feel compelled to write on this topic again, since I think Altucher’s marketing efforts a year ago speak so much about the nature of the crypto craze at that time.

To be clear, I have no axe to grind. I’ve never lost money with the guy. Never had any kind of personal or professional relationship. Never met him. But, like virtually all of you reading this post, I’ve seen his face countless times on ads (especially late in 2017 and early in 2018) touting the surefire investment power of crypto. He became, in the words of the press, the “face of Bitcoin” (I guess all the other faces were taken).

Altucher is definitely a man who could be described in totally opposite ways, all while being completely honest. You could, for example, talk about him as a successful entrepreneur, popular author, widely-followed podcast host, and multimillionaire venture capitalist. Every one of those things would be true. You could, with just as much honesty, describe him as a man with multiple failed marriages and relationships, a person who by his own admission blew tens of millions of dollars and was at the brink of suicide, and a man who has created businesses that have drawn the wrath of customers and the Better Business Bureau alike. All true. It depends on how you want to spin things. (more…)