I was watching OIH very, very closely this morning, and even though technically it was a breakout, I decided to get out of the position.
Why did I do this? I don't normally just throw my arms up when nothing is technically wrong. The reason is because too much of what I was seeing resembled a false breakout. If we were in a market that was pretty near recent lows, I would be very excited about OIH, because it has most of the markings of a fantastic position. It's under $90 now, but if the stock market in general looked like it did early in March, I think OIH would have the potential to move to $125 without missing a beat.
But we're not in early March. We're in the second half of April, and the market has had one of the hugest countertrend rallies in recorded history. This isn't the time to be taking on big new long positions. In point of fact, I am focusing on my current longs now to see where I can trim.
I have beefed up my /ES short to 20 contracts.
