Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The iPad in Real LIfe

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When I went on my Parisian adventure, I took the iPad with me, not really knowing whether I'd use it or not. Since the Uiuoweasdfjklasdgoiuw volcano from Iceland doubled the length of my stay, I had a lengthy opportunity to see if – in real life – the iPad actually got used or not.

Well, it did and it didn't. Let's start with the good stuff: since I was without my beloved New York Times, I relied in the iPad to get a basic sense of the news that was going on. For an electronic publication, the New York Times looks great on the iPad; it's really sleek.

Having said that, if a good old fashion newspaper were sitting right next to it, I wouldn't have even bothered reading the very abridged version of the paper available on the iPad. It just isn't the same. I daresay in twenty years, I'll still be flopped on the sofa reading the made-of-paper newspaper (if they're still around). Nothing beats it.

What I didn't use the iPad for was any kind of "input", like doing a blog post. The notion of actually using the iPad for anything creative (writing an email, doing a post, or what have you) never even crossed my mind. It's sort of like driving a car with barbecue tongs; it can be done, but it's stupid. I'd much rather use a real computer.

I would also mention that the gee-I-might-break-it-factor looms pretty large. When I made the trek to Air France to wait in line for tickets, I quickly dismissed the idea of bringing along the iPad, because it's relatively large and fragile. I have no problem having my iPhone with me every waking hour in my pocket, because it's small and tough. But you can't slip in iPad into your pocket, and it's trouble to tote around.

The bottom line is that the iPad got used on the plane for my kids to play some really cool games, but that was pretty much it. For real work, I'm going to keep using a real computer; for reading stuff, I'm going to read it the old fashioned way. It was nice as a make-do since I didn't have a newspaper, but besides that, I hardly touched the thing.

0426-ipad

19 Stocks Starting to Break Down (By Ryan Mallory)

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What we have below is a handful of stocks that are showing signs of
an impending breakdown as the money seems to be leaving them in a very
subtle manner. In order for these setups to work, you are going to
need some cooperation from the general market, as these stocks like any
other (they are showing bearish divergences from the general market
direction, though) will, nonetheless, find price support should the
market continue to soar upwards.

The most interesting part of the results below are the three
education and training services stocks that are popping up. Considering
how small of an overall representation that this industry has in the
grand scheme of things, it is something  you can't not take notice of.

Read More

Originally Posted on Ryan's Blog at SharePlanner.com

Dow Nails 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement

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The Dow 30 pegged its 61.8% retracement today, as shown below. The area from 11,250 to 11,750 is also absolutely clogged with overhead supply from the summer of 2008, suggesting increased difficulty climbing from here.

I will hasten to add here, though, that Fibonacci levels haven't exactly been stone walls of late. Indeed, many indices have not along trampled across these lines, but made a rude gesture while doing so. Therefore, it's worth casually noting that we're at this level, but I wouldn't kneel down in reverence toward this fact, given the state of things.

0426-dow618 

SPX Channels (by Springheel Jack)

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We saw a new high on Friday, and it is very likely now that will be
followed by further new highs over the next few days. Looking at my SPX
channels chart the next upside target is in the 1232 to 1235 area on
SPX, if we reach it this week. It will be somewhat higher if we reach it
next week as the trendline is rising:

100426_SPX_60min_Wave_5_Channels

In the very short term though, we may well see some weakness early this
week as we appear to have established a new short term rising channel on
ES, and we are near the top of it:

100426_ES_60min_New_Rising_Channel

That said, it is definitely a day to be cautious on the short side as it
is Monday, and as I posted the other day, 26 of the lasted 30 Mondays
have closed green. Of the four red closes, two of those closed down less
than 2 points and the other closes were only down 12 and 14 points
respectively.

Within the last 30 Mondays though, the two longest series of positive
closes were of 8 closes in a row, and one of those series is the last
eight Mondays. Even by recently bullish standards therefore, we are
overdue a red Monday and we may see one of those today.

I'm expecting to see more consolidation in USD during the next few days,
but again, that may well not apply today. Over the last few days on the
60 min chart, DX has been forming a broadening ascending wedge that is
still holding well, and if it reaches the next upside target, that will
be near to a new high. After (and if) the wedge breaks downwards, I am
expecting a retracement to the 80.6 area before the next USD wave up
begins:

100426_DX_60min_BA_Wedge

I've been having a look at GBPUSD over the weekend, and it has been very
marked how relatively strong Cable has been relative to the Euro in
recent weeks. I'm not expecting that to last and after some further
upside with a target in the 1.56 area I would expect to see a strong new
wave down towards a new low below 136.94. I have put an EW count of
where I think we are on the daily chart along with the current rising
channel:

100426_GBPUSD_Daily_Channels_and_Count

There are some other reasons to think that GBPUSD can expect further
weakness though in that there is a general election at the end of next
week that looks likely to produce another weak and divided government
with little or no commitment to putting the UK's fiscal house in order.

That matters a lot as over the last thirteen years the incumbent labour
government, which is largely funded by the unions, has gone on  the
largest spending spree in UK history. A million new government employees
were hired, government spending ballooned from 38% of GDP to 52%, and
the budget deficit is 12% of GDP, which on a par with Greece. This has
resulted in a situation where over half of the UK population receives
over half of their income from the government, either in salary or
benefits, and the parties competing for power are largely doing so on
the basis of maintaining government spending and increasing taxes on the
dwindling number of UK residents with assets in order to do so.

It is hard to see this situation ending well, and unless there is an
outright majority for the opposition conservatives next week, which
looks very unlikely at the moment, then the situation is likely to get
worse until the UK has a currency and debt crisis as it did in 1976
under the last labour government.

Good luck trading today everyone.