Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rising Channels on ES, Gold and Oil

By -

Just a quick post with three rising channels that I have been looking at over the last day that people may find useful.

The most tentative is the new rising channel on ES for this current subwave up. This is tentative until we see another peak as this may not be a channel at all, and could be something else such as a rising wedge. Still, ES has been channeling well, and this looks good on the basis of the information available at the moment.

The IHS, which I posted before the open at slope yesterday, had a target of 1207 which has already played out to target so that pattern won't take us to the upper channel trendline:

100415_ES_60min_New_Channel
I also have a rising channel on gold, and the lower trendline looks solid. The upper trendline looks pretty good too but there is a chance that we could see a breakthrough to the parallel red trendline above. If there is a break up then that should be the target:

100415_Gold_Daily_Rising_Channel

The last rising channel is on oil, and it looks solid. The next target is the upper channel trendline:

100415_Oil_Daily_Rising_Channel
I'm still on vacation and will be missing most of the trading day on Thursday so I'll check in later on in the session. Good luck trading everyone!

By the way, Leisa asked me for a Haiku yesterday while chatting about the UK man recently convicted of being overly amorous towards a donkey and a horse and these were the result. Enjoy!

Limerick

 

There was an old man whose desire
Was a stable romance to acquire
But the donkey and horse
took legal recourse
So the neighs meant the outcome was dire.

 

Haiku

Horses and donkeys
can be patient to a fault
But neigh still means nay

Chart on Ford (F) by Mike Paulenoff

By -

Today’s Yesterday's strength in Ford (F) has hurdled key near-term resistance at 12.95, which triggered additional buying (short covering too?) that has propelled the stock to an intraday high at 13.30 so far. To the extent that F can hold and extend its early gains, my next immediate target is 13.45/55. However, if in fact the April 8 low represented the end of a correction off of the March 18 high at 14.54, then the current upmove also represents the start of a new upleg that should revisit the March high on the way to 15.25/50 thereafter. Only a decline that breaks back beneath 12.95 on a sustained basis will compromise my current outlook.

3fkX6udct
Originally published on MPTrader.com.

The Born Louvre

By -

Bonjour again from the 16th district of Paris for one of my all-text missives.

It seems my absence from the land of the free and home of the bailout hasn't done any magic for the markets, as they have simply lurched higher into Never-Never-Was-a-Problem Land. My kind host here, Royale with Cheese, has been sending me pained text messages about the markets.

I actually viewed the jolt higher with a certain sense of relief, since the big ETFs all perfectly touched the resistance lines on Wednesday. I increased my short SPY position substantially near the close. The handful of longs I've got – such as CROX – have helped salve the pain to some degree.

I also view with some curiousity how the financials exploded higher Wednesday (such as FAS) whereas the real estate ETFs acted as if there were no rally at all. Strange.

Paris is a beautiful city. It is marvelously old. It is a delightful thing to stroll street after street and see hardly any franchise stores or familiar brand names. Oh, there's been a Subway here and there, but by and large what one sees actually seems to have some soul to it.

I'm going to be fully back in the Slope saddle on Monday morning. I'm going to have a statue made of Leisa in the Slope Pantheon for adopting my blog-child this week. Thank you, also, to both contributors and commenters alike for keeping things sailing this week. Au revoir for now!

SlopeFest is Happening!

By -

Slopefest is Happening! Yes, after all this time, it's your opportunity to meet face-to-face with your favorite fellow Slopers. We'll be gathering for a fun, lively dinner at the Sugarcane Lounge at the Venetian (Las Vegas) on the evening of Monday, May 10th from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. This coincides with the Money Show, which runs from May 10-13.

The cost to attend SlopeFest is $195 per person, which is to cover food, drinks, and other surprises. You can sign up here to reserve your spot today.

0406-sugarcane

The Enemy of a Good Result… (by Biffermas)

By -

Aim_high 

There is a frequently used quote in orthopedics that highlights a
very important general concept, “The enemy of a good result is the pursuit of a
better one.”  Those few extra tweaks and
adjustments at the tail end of a successful knee replacement operation could
prove counterproductive, and just might result in the entire procedure failing.

Have you ever found thoughts such as these running through
your brain?

“I sold my position for a three-point gain, and naturally it
shot up another two.  I must figure out
how to capture the remaining move from now on. 
That’s $2000 in profit I left on the table!”

“My trading account rose 40% last year, but Trader X made
$125%.  My goal next year is to beat him.”

“My trading has been so spot-on lately I’m going to use options
instead of stocks to juice up the return.”

“This trade is going exactly how I envisioned, and I’m up
15%!  My target is now 2% away; too bad
the trading day is about to end…  I think
I’ll hold this overnight. “

On a similar note, a concept called the Nirvana Fallacy is often observed in
trading circles.  This line of thinking
is present on other blogs, but certainly not on the Slope!

“The Nirvana fallacy is the logical error of comparing
actual things with unrealistic, idealized alternatives.  It can also refer to the tendency to assume
that there is a perfect solution to a particular problem.  By creating a false dichotomy that presents
one choice which is obviously advantageous – while at the same time being
utterly implausible – a person using the nirvana fallacy can attack any
opposing idea because it is imperfect.”

We all deal with flawed systems.  We all screw up, bite the bullet, screw the
pooch, and get taken to the cleaners periodically.  We all have great trades, feel like a champ,
and perform admirably in stretches.  The only difference between us is the magnitude
and frequency of our victories and failures.  
Beware of pie in the sky statements from others, especially if they are selling something or pushing an agenda.

Happy trading, everyone!

Beat_the_bear