Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Again, the Fed and Unemployment (by George)

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With the expected release this Friday of a whopping 190,000 non farm
payrolls added, it is no surprise that some investors are considering
economic recovery and the accompanied rate hikes. The following image  from today's MarketWatch home page expresses this idea
clearly:

Ben

This leads me to think that this Friday is initially a win-win for the stock market; both prospects
of economic recover with positive news, or continued loose monetary
policy with negative news may initially boost the market. Given that on
this report the the trend usually reverses, if the market does react
with a surge of strength, I believe it will be a short term top. The
tricky part for a trade is that the stock market is closed on Friday. Let's hope strength spills into Monday's open for a short sell.

Refer to this prior post on the importance of the Fed to capital markets.

PLEASE NOTE: DISQUS IS DOWN AGAIN (big surprise!).

ES & Keltner Channel (by Greg)

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Here's another example of using a Keltner Channel to trade the ES,

ES 2010-03-31-TOS_CHARTS

1) We have a classic candlestick reversal (I missed it for some reason).

2) At point 2 we have my favorite setup, which is a back test of the reversal as it tests the edge of the Keltner channel that it just broke through.  The key here is price (5 min candle) should not close below the lower channel.  If it does you close immediately.  The other thing is you enter long as it is at, or probing below the channel.  Typically 1/2 point below the channel can be used as the stop.  I often use 3/4 of a point, but then I enter long as price is probing below, so it's often a 1/2 point stop.  Another key to the setup is a compatible volume profile.  In this case, volume dropped substantially on the back test, which further supports the setup.  Basically, the action suggests longs are just doing a little profit taking, and sellers have stepped aside. 

3) I'd close at the doji that printed on the far end of the channel, especially since the doji closed below the channel.  A reload, could be done when the mid-channel line held all 5 min closes.

4) After printing a double top that brought in additional selling one begins to wonder if we'll have a sell off.  During the push to the second double top, we probe support on the middle channel.  The advance warning to the break down comes with the doji close below the mid-channel line.  Bingo another signal.

5) The close of this last setup is the 3 SMA (Close) cross with the 5 SMA (pivot).

One of the things you might consider is eliminating anything from you charts that isn't used as part of you setup or trade management.  I think almost all traders can be hindered from effective trading by information overload.  It's taken me a while to realize simpler is better.  I often trade with iSwim, which forces you to chose just a single study.  After much consideration, my single study of choice hands down is the keltner channel.  In a lot ways, it's all you need besides price and volume.

I hope this gives you another idea to but in your bag of tricks.

Dilemma, Go Long or Short? (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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Wow, what a day! Someone was pounding on my door like crazy this morning, I opened it up and Ted was standing there with Brew at his side. Brew was holding this huge hammer and Ted looked really pissed, his meth eyes were bulging out as he started yelling at me for stealing his van. Ted grabbed me by the shirt threatening to kick my ass, and my mind began the process of taking me to my "happy place" where I can black out until the ass kicking is over. My mind drifted off to the thoughts of gnomes living in the forest with naked Avatar chicks flying around greeting me, when all of a sudden a fist flew past my ear and punched Ted right in the nose knocking him out cold and bringing me back to reality.


"Who the hell is this cuz?" the Colonel asked. "The enemy," I said as is I gave him a swift cheap shot kick to the head.

 

Brew was pretty cool about the whole thing; he even helped us drag Ted inside. Right now Brew's telling the colonel about trying to score with my grandma; that sort of sucks, but they seem to be getting along alright. We are all trying to figure out what to do next. If Ted wakes up soon, the shit will hit the fan. We have to get him out of here quick, or there will be hell to pay. I haven't seen Ted since he was in the hospital with mercury poisoning.

 

I wonder if the Colonel has an old mercury thermometer laying around which I could break and pour down his mouth, then drop him off at a nearby hospital. Or maybe I should go talk to my neighbor Dr. Ramon? I bet he's really good in these situations.


MRCY.3.31.10