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Usually after the FOMC announcement, there's a bit of spasmodic movement, and then the market blasts off to the stratosphere. Today the bulls are – with 45 minutes left in the session – uncharacteristically unable to get their act together. It'll be interesting to see where the day winds up, but if you didn't know any better, you'd assume there wasn't any announcement today at all.
Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
The biggest "macro" disappointment I've had in the markets and my trading over the past six months is simple to explain, and I came across a chart this morning which does a nice job capturing it.
My expectation was that the markets, having rallied mightily from March to October, would crest at a major resistance level and simply roll over and resume their fall. So far, any falls have been nothing more than a tease.
There was a fall in late October; that got trounced by higher highs; there was a healthier fall in late January and early February; that was obliterated by dramatically higher highs. Yesterday's 200+ point dip might have been the beginning of simply another fake-out.
My expectations for the market were much closer to what NBG – a Greek bank, shown below – experienced. I guess the required fundamentals for my expectations had to be a lot worse than what we're seeing in the U.S.
