Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Important Declining Trendline on ES (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm on holiday for a couple of days and I didn't think I'd have an
internet connection but it turns out that I do, so I caught some of the
action today and saw something that looked interesting enough to be
worth posting.

I've been looking for a decline channel or pattern forming from the top,
and at the moment I'm not seeing much other than the very large
patterns I've posted previously. However I have noticed a very
significant looking decline trendline that has been considerably
strengthened by action in the last few days, and it is the blue
trendline on this ES 60min chart:

100607_ES_60min_Decline_Trendline

At no stage in the last few weeks have we broken away in either
direction from this trendline for more than two or three days, which makes it well worth noting, and we closed on it tonight.

We could be making a short term bottom here. There's definite positive
divergence on RSI and MACD on the hourly chart as I've marked, and it
may well be that we bounce here. If we break through that trendline
overnight though, then the path is open to go considerably lower this
week before returning to the trendline again by the end of the week.

EURUSD is also showing some positive divergence, having come very close
to the lower trendline of the six month old broadening descending wedge
on Sunday night:

100607_EURUSD_Daily_BD_Wedge

Looking through the other USD currency pairs nothing much sprang to the
eye in the short term except for a very steep declining channel on
AUDUSD. It is so steep that I was wondering how long it could last, but
I'll be watching it carefully as on a conviction break of 80, I have my
next target for AUDUSD under 70, and a longer term rising wedge target
of 62.5:

100607_AUDUSD_60min_Declining_Channel

Freedom (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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Surprising as it may seem, no one has ever asked me the question, "Nathaniel, boxers or briefs?" Well the answer is both. I enjoy the freedom and sexiness of boxers (they make me feel like a bad-boy). And underneath I wear a pair of tighty-whiteys, which provide me with some support and an extra layer of security (I've been the victim of the pants on the ground from behind for most of my childhood and adult life). Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 20-25 times, I wear an extra pair of tight underwear under the boxers.

 

While in Japan; I wore nothing but Kimonos, going "Genghis Khan" (as the call it in the East) with nothing underneath. Ridding myself of undershorts has changed me in a way. I feel truly free for the first time in my life, and decided to walk the streets of NYC in nothing but my Kimono from here on. 

Looking at my portfolio, I'm sort of surprised by it's lack of shorts as of late also. I was actually building long positions last week and at today’s (Monday) close. I have several reasons for doing so, right or wrong here are a few.

 

1. We are range bound, the trend over the past couple of weeks is neutral until SPX 1100 or 1040 is taken out.

2. Many indicators I use have been showing divergence and possible signs that accumulation may be taking place.

3. I don't trust the flash crash. Something sneaky was going on, and I don't think most retail bears benefited much from it.

4. EW – Lots of talk of P3. I rarely visit any EW blogs, but did today. I see many counts that have 1-2,1-2,1-2 down. I find that often when you have a 1-2,1-2,1-2 in any direction, something else is probably going on, maybe a series of abc-x-abc. Be prepared for a nasty surprise. NeoWave is not necessarily banking on a vicious decline right now, some counts have us breaking the April high.

5. Lots of bearishness in the news, and my mom talking about selling everything. I told her to lighten up around SPX 1200 and she laughed at me. Now she is ready to sell everything, that also makes me a nervous bear.

6. Here are some charts.

 

SPX is a "Sell" but we are sitting on some support right now.

$SPX
  

 

Surprisingly SSO is still a "Buy" also sitting on support.

SSO
 

 

More surprisingly FAS is still a "Buy" sitting on support.

FAS
 

FAZ is a "SELL" bumping some resistance.

FAZ
 

Now we could easily break support and have a really nice sell signal on SSO, FAS and other bullish ETF's; but if I want to go long, this looks like a good risk reward place to do so.

 

If my long positions go "Genghis Khan" on my portfolio (which may very well happen), I have my stops and a couple of part time jobs lined up with my neighbor Dr. Ramon. Always have a plan when trading.