During the course of the week, I think I'm just going to create posts as drafts as leave it to Lovely Leisa to keep the rhythm of the blog going at her own chosen pace. Below are my thoughts on what I think lies ahead for the week.
Generally speaking, I am positioned for a modest-to-medium push higher followed by what I'm hoping is Le Grande Tumble. For the rest of June, I'm only going to be in a very small number of positions. I'm currently positioned for such a bounce, being long UNG, RTH, XLU, and FXE. My short on GLD seems a bit incongruous with this disposition, but I've got some my reasons for it.
I've got a bunch of charts below, so I'll just say a few words on each.
On the /ES, I'm looking for a bounce to at least 1103, if not a little higher.
A bounce on the EUR/USD might provide more fuel for the equity fire than I am anticipating. I could see the EUR actually getting as high as a little above 1.3.
The gold miners look positioned for what could be a hearty bullish breakout.
The $INDU's first target would be its 50% retracement level.
Likewise, a modest target for the MidCap 400 would be its Fib Arc. I'm expecting the most strength from the small caps, which I have not charted here.
The NQ's first upside target is shown below.
As I mentioned, I'm long RTH. A push to that long-term trendline could be followed by a very nice fall.
The 50% retracement on the S&P seems like a reasonable retracement target.
Lastly, the XLU, which I'm also long, could push to its descending line of resistance before falling hard toward that longer-term support line.
The best possible path for my positions would be a push higher, giving me a chance to reload my zillions of shorts at better prices in order to take advantage of a big fall. The worst possible outcome this week would be an immediate hard fall, since I'm not only not in position for it, but since I'm positioned (lightly) for a rise.
I don't intend to get really serious about shorting until July 1 at the earliest, and possibly not until July 6 or later, depending on price action. In the meantime, I am still going through my charts and tucking away those items which look best positioned for a hard fall after a hoped-for increase in price.
