OK, fine, I'm obsessed. It's 11 o'clock in the evening, I really should be in bed, but I keep staring at my freshest take on the 1937-1942 analog. Here's my newly-labeled Past:
And here's my newly-labeled Present:
Some observations:
+ The behavior of the analog from points 0 to 12 is, to me, breathtaking;
+ The behavior from 12 to 17 is still astonishing, but the waves of the Present are more muted than those of the Past; I attribute this to historically unprecedented government intervention. The relationships are still there, but they are somewhat softer.
+ This tells me that point 17 – that is, the high in late April – is not going to be overtaken. S&P 1250 is not going to happen. In fact, if this analog holds, such a figure will not be seen for years.
The big question for me is whether the big drop (circled in red in the Past graph) transpired late in June, or if it still is going to take place. I am not comfortable labeling anything past 17 at this point.
I had said earlier this month that the big drop must have already happened. I'm having second thoughts. I cannot divine how to compare the activity from late April until now with the same chunk of the analog in the late 1930s.
The principal point of this post is to make clear that I am not convinced a drop into the low 900s this year is off the table yet.
