Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
So far today, the weakness in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has not inflicted significant technical damage to the Aug-Sept uptrend. To do that, the GLD must break back beneath today's low at 126.61– and follow through to violate the prior significant pivot low at 125.58.
A breach of 125.58 will inflict meaningful damage to the dominant uptrend, which should trigger additional selling pressure that drives the GLD to test and likely break its Aug-Sept up trendline, now at 124.80 within a developing correction of the the two month, 12% advance. Barring a break of today's initial low intraday low at 126.61, however, the bulls will remain in directional control.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
I've been mentioning with increasing frequency that TLT – the ETF for U.S. bonds – is a good short. It's my second-largest short position, and as of this writing it's down nearly 1% on the day. I think Ben's cute little scheme of propping up all his Wall Street buddies with trillions of dollars of POMO/QE2 is going to eventually badly damage the United States, and I think the value of U.S. debt instruments is going to circle down the toilet. I believe betting against T-bonds is a good play.
SPX has just been drifting sideways this week really. I've been looking for anything in the way of short term patterns but haven't found much. We do have a fairly solid looking declining resistance trendline though and that is worth noting. Here it is on the ES 60min chart:
I'm beginning to think that we may see the next significant interim top here rather than in the 1170 – 1180 area. I've a couple of reasons to think so. The first is that we have been stalled here a while, and now that 1130 SPX has broken, this is the last really significant resistance level on SPX below 1200 SPX. Looking at the SPX weekly chart we're also at a significant level on the weekly RSI.
During the October 2007 to March 2009 bear market, RSI on the weekly chart never rose above 55. When it did rise above it in June 2009, to about 58, it was a signal that the bear market was over, and it was also the level of a significant interim top. We may be seeing a similar signal now, on both counts, though the move down over the summer didn't quite make the 20% decline necessary to qualify as a cyclical bear market.
The second reason I'm wondering about a significant interim top here is that while SPX has been stalled below 1150, USD has kept falling, and emerging markets have kept rising. I've been watching a rising wedge on the EEM 60min chart and we are now almost at the next likely reversal level. This is a key chart for overall market direction and you'll note that EEM bottomed in May rather than July, leading the SPX and indicating that the SPX summer decline wasn't likely to last. Also worth noting on this chart is that EEM has now exceeded the April high:
Vix bottomed a while ago and I have a sloppy rising channel on the 30min chart:
Looking at oil, I'm seeing a likely rising channel with the lower trendline of the previous rising channel as the upper trendline of the new channel. If so then the next upside target is in the 79.6 area, though as I write oil is stalling at the previous September high at 78:
Today is the last day of September and of the third quarter. The Stock Trader's Almanac says that this is generally a day of institutional portfolio window dressing and heavy selling, with the Dow down 8 of the last 12 years. There was a 4.7% rally on 30th September in 2008 though, so this isn't necessarily a down day of course.