Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Awaiting Panic Low in Yield (Paulenoff)

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Remarkably, 10-year yield has declined beneath its December 2008 "crisis" low of 2.04% to a new "generational low" of 1.94% so far, as global money continues to flow into U.S. Treasury paper (despite its suspect rating downgrade in August).

Purely from a technical perspective, all eyes now are on the behavior of weekly RSI (momentum), which so far has NOT confirmed recent yield weakness from 2.30% and which we should consider a potential warning signal that 10-year yield is in its price capitulation phase.

Downside target zone: 1.78% to 1.46% within a panic low followed by a vicious, sustained upside reversal.

For those thinking that the UltraShort 20+ Year T-bond ETF (TBT) has to be a buy somewhere down here, well, yes "the buy" is getting closer, but my intermediate term work on 10-year yield argues that benchmark yield might still need to press 15 to 50 basis points lower in the days ahead, reflecting weak economic data, panic flight to safety, fears that Europe is disintegrating, etc.


Originally published on

Defensive Repositioning

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I'll do a post after the close, but I wanted to put up something quickly as an update.

+ My profit was highest a few seconds after the opening bell today; the market's rise has been chipping away at it ever since, although I'm still looking at a nice profit.

+ I have no large positions in either direction.

+ I am seeing an interesting number of short-term long plays that I'm entering, but these are defensive only.

+ There is a lot of headline risk this week, which makes me somewhat uncomfortable.

+ The worst thing of all is that all the charts have these enormous multiple gaps in them over the past few days, and it's impossible to say WHICH of those gaps are going to get filled. We've fallen very far, very fast.

I'm leaning somewhat conservative at this point, thus the hedging.