On a not as bad as expected Payrolls report the US market is now at our target, which was a second hit of the upper reverse symmetrical triangle’s trend line. That became the objective after SPX took back the green lateral support area.
To review, bulls have the moving average trends, they have lateral support and they have blue sky’s unfettered possibilities. The bears have divergences in RSI and MACD with increasingly compromised bearish looks. In short, technically speaking the bears have not much more than bupkis.
Price and trend are what they are until they no longer are. Well as of now, they are. And what makes it more complicated is that I have a global macro view (Q4 2019 or H1 2020) that may be supportive even as the US under performs many global regions and asset markets. Err, it’s November now and the scary Q4 theme no longer has the scary month of October.
The thing we need to figure out now is whether or not the 2018 Christmas Eve Massacre – as the machines puked the market to a buying opportunity while man and woman were reveling in their spiked eggnog – was the flush as opposed to any flush that may be coming.
SPX point #5, in the books and soon to be exposed as a bull turnstile or bear reversal.