Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

So Far, So Good

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I remember my father giving me an example a long time ago of the dangers of forecasting through extrapolation, and it was to imagine a man who had stepped off the top of the Empire State Building, and was overheard to murmur as he fell past the 51st story ‘So Far, So Good’. The point is that regardless of how well the first part of a plan develops, one always needs to consider the possibility that it may wander significantly off track by the end. We shall see how the rest of the plan for November develops. 🙂

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Want Trump Out? Sell Stocks.

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While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article.  In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.

I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks.  As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”

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Teasing Out the Cycle

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With the exception of the first three weeks of the year, the entirety of 2019 has been completely cyclic for the small caps, as shown below in five charts of symbol IWM. I have applied a variety of overbought/oversold indicators, and cycle indicators, to these SlopeCharts, and I invite you to thumb through the gallery and draw your own conclusions about what’s most likely next.

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LTCM Vignette

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It is dead quiet this morning (I am typing this before the open, and the ES is up 0.01%), so I thought I’d fill the space with a little something that occurred to me when I woke up.

Anyone here remember Long Term Capital Management? Yes, I see some hands in the back of the room. For those of you who aren’t, LTCM was a hedge fund in the mid 1990s which blew up. That in itself isn’t very interesting, but what makes the blowup distinct is that it was rescued by the federal government. Looking at the four years prior, one wouldn’t have seen this coming:

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