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I stumbled upon the latest long-term projection of U.S. from the Congressional Budget Office, and even if we ignore the fact that these projections are based on rosy estimates with absolutely no surprises along the way, these are some jaw-dropping charts. And, spoiler alert, things will be WAY worse than they are guessing. Anyway…………
Federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 202 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2051, and the deficit is projected to equal 13 percent of GDP.
It is in essence a year ago now that Warren Buffett ill-timed his entry into the gold stock sector, unwittingly calling a top to the post-crash rally and signaling the start of the 2020 inflation trades, which did not include gold stocks (for logical reasons, as belabored in NFTRH and at NFTRH.com over the years). Increasing the view that ole’ Warren was playing contrary indicator last summer were the usual gold perma-bull suspects coming out immediately after with bullhorns a blaring as we noted in real time on August 17, 2020: Buffett Buys a Gold Stock!
In the scope of the entire correction, as the bids rotated out of the precious metals and to a lesser degree growth/tech stocks into value stocks and cyclicals (including commodities) the inflation-instigated reflation trades hit stride and gold stocks were sent on a long decline. Again, if you tune out the perma-touts and think rationally, the miners were only doing what they should do (see below).
There were two false breakdowns, the second of which sparked a strong rally. We also caught Mr. Buffett for a contrary signal to that rally on February 17, 2021: Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock!