Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Investing In A State Of Fear

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Think back New Year’s Eve, and all the uncertainty still surrounding COVID, and the aftermath of a disputed election. If an investor told you he had $500,000 and was unwilling to risk a drop of more than 20% over the next six months, what would you have suggested he do? 

We addressed this question in a post published on New Year’s Day: New Year, State Of Fear:

Our approach to investing in a state of fear is to buy likely winners and hedge away the fear. Here’s an example, followed by an explanation. Let’s say that you have $500,000 in cash you want to put to work in 2021, but you aren’t willing to risk a drawdown of more than 20%. If you indicated that in our hedged portfolio construction tool on New Year’s Eve,


The Next Upside Targets

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Obviously SPX broke up at the last inflection point and may well be on the way to the resistance trendline I mentioned in my last post, currently in the 4400 area.

I’m still leaning towards seeing a decent backtest of the 4000 area over the summer sometime and ideally that backtest would reach the 3800 area. I’ll explain why that is in another post over the holiday weekend and if we were to see that retracement, and then found decent support there, it would set up a potentially very bullish scenario for another leg up.

In the shorter term, the rising wedge from March 2020  broke down on the last retracement and if that break was just an expansion of the wedge, then we should see that test of wedge resistance in the 4400 area next. If seen I will then redraw the wedge support as unbroken.