Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

CPI Could End the Bull Run (by LZ)

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The CPI report on Thursday might be a snoozer hitting expectations of 0.2 percent. If it comes in higher, bears might gain an edge on the market by looking at the Cleveland Fed’s model and crude oil moving forward. 

Nowcasting

I’ve been following the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model for the past year. It hasn’t been terribly accurate, consistently coming in on the high side as disinflation kicked in. The past two years of data shows they lag the trend as shown by this chart from MacroMicro. The Cleveland Fed’s model is consistently low when inflation is rising and consistently high when inflation is falling.

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