Housing is in TROUBLE (by NYUGrad) – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Housing is local…UNTIL IT IS NOT

I want to 1st give a big high-five to Travis who runs the YouTube channel Real Estate Mindset. He has been on a crusade to do boots on the ground reporting across multiple cities starting from Texas and going West. I am sure this is a big effort as he has to pay for his own hotels, gas, food, camera gear, drones etc. And it is time away from his family and friends. My guess is when the housing market falls, Travis will be invited to TV Networks to speak about the crash that no one thought was coming or could happen again after 2008!

Before we get to his videos below, I want to express that I too am sitting out of the housing market. While stocks move quicker than Real Estate, the forces of supply and demand are the same. At one point between 2017-2020 I was shopping for my dream home out west. I took my time canvasing multiple cities, which is costly as that costs multiple flights, hotels, food, multiple real estate agents etc to work with. I am not your typical buyer as I would not be tied down to a 9-5 and could live anywhere that was suitable for my family. But I lived through 2007 and I was beginning to see similar froth even back in 2019.

Multiple offers
hot money coming in from overseas
FHA loans only requiring 5% down
Lot premiums that would double from the previous month I visited
Buyers asked to waive contingencies, appraisals, and even inspections!
Proliferation of 1st time AirBNB Short term rental landlords
Realtors who were rude asking questions like “Are you really going to buy this month?” “How soon can you close?”
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I can go on and on but you get the picture. So until I see multiple signs line up, I am going to be patiently waiting for blood on the streets. Some metrics I am looking for are:

for that city and zip, for the price per sq foot to come down past below their historical averages. Why below? Because home prices per sq ft don’t just fall and stop on a dime to their averages. They overshoot, just like stocks
for new housing starts to fall below 1M. Right now there are 1.6M housing starts across the country. That is not even including existing home sales
There are a few other metrics which I am keeping close to the vest but you can gather I am bearish on the housing market, both residential and commercial

Now onto Travis and Real Estate Mindset’s playlist from his Boots on the Ground Adventure!