The recession probability indicator (symbol FR:RECPROUSM156N but you knew that already) has popped up recently to the highest level of the past couple of years. This looks very dramatic, but it is still showing a change of only about 1.5%.
This indicator is pretty ridiculous, because it basically flies higher once it’s clear a recession is already taking place. It’s sort of like having a Kicked In the Nuts indicator. “Nope. Nope. Nothing. Ah, yeah, now I’ve been kicked in the nuts.”
