As a quick followup to our ESpresso! post, we thought we would share a snapshot of oil, one of our favorite futures instruments. But first, a quick update on that rascal /ES…
– 1160s (prior S/R level): BROKEN
– 1175s (a highly regarded level): HIT
– 1200s (are they serious?): NEXT??
– 1230s (the end of the bearish condition): SERIOUSLY??
Now back to CL… Last week, we circulated our latest CL analysis with a group of likeminded traders. OPEC, French oil strikes, QE2, Chinese demand, and record inventory levels aside, here are the major levels we have been watching for a couple weeks. Our states report on oil includes:
– 81.60 (support): HELD
– 83.10 (defended by buyers and sellers many times yesterday): HIT
– 83.80 (the next volume cluster): HIT and TESTED last night again during globex
– 84.60 (prior highs): HIT at 84.50, we're not sure we would want to short this level again if we retest
– 86.50: ARE THEY KIDDING?
These levels are not necessarily probabilities, but price discovery and value area possibilities.
Just for kicks, let's check out what the commercial entities are doing with their oil positions based on the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) info. These are airlines, producers, transportation companies, and other big hedgers. Same rules apply as last time:
Red=commercial traders, yellow=small spec traders, blue=large non-commercial traders.
Green vertical lines show relatively high COT readings by the commercials. Red vertical lines show relatively low COT readings for these slick oil hedgers.
Hmmm, someone's getting ready. They might be early, it might not happen for awhile. But it sure looks interesting.
