Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Alcoa (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Let's have a look at the BIG picture chart analytics of Alcoa (AA) ahead of its initiation of the new earning reporting season starting tomorrow evening after the closing bell. I post the AA chart analysis merely as a way to gauge expectations in an otherwise very uncertain environment. Let's also be aware that earnings are one thing, but guidance once again might be the major challenge for investors during the upcoming weeks.

Purely from an intermediate-term technical perspective, if the chart work is telling us anything about the likely reaction of investors to Alcoa's earnings report after tomorrow's close, then the July-Oct set-up points to upside continuation to 13.05/10, and possibly to the 14.00 area in the hours immediately following the announcement. Only a sustained break beneath 11.80 will invalidate the current technical outlook.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Out of Whack

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I came up with quite an interesting graph today. Below you can see, in blue, the line graph of the SPY over about the past half-decade. On the same graph, in black, is the 10-year note interest rate.

Notice how, until about the April peak, these two tracked each other quite closely. There were occasions when the SPY had to "catch up" with the movement in interest rates, but it always did manage to catch up.

1006-interestspread

But look at that big, honkin' red arrow I've drawn. There is a huge discrepancy between interest rates (which continue to plunge) and the equity markets (which continue to soar).

My opinion? This is an unsustainable situation. This spread hasn't persisted in the past, and I don't think it will persist into the future.

Specific Shorts and Stops

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Here are some recent entries with their respective stop prices:

ABC…………31.68
AM…………19.89
ANV…………28.20
BIDU…………104.95
CCC…………15.73
CCL…………40.13
CDR…………6.58
CMTL…………28.95
DISH…………19.88
EEFT…………18.54
FII…………23.60
FOSL…………54.77
JNJ…………63.07
LULU…………46.58
M…………24.79
MHP…………33.81
MTN…………40.63
SHLD…………75.33
SID…………17.85
SIVB…………46.18
SLW…………27.32
TLVT…………26.01
TMO…………48.91
WAT…………72.45
XRTX…………16.16