While this top we have in place right now has not yet confirmed itself as a top, the only way to consider it a top of all of green wave (3) or yellow b would be with a truncation in place. Those that have been with us for a while know that I am not fond of truncations, as they are very unreliable trading cues, and are often invalidated as tops.
So, at this time, I have to potentially view the market within wave (4) of an Ending Diagonal to wave V. This means that, as long as our lows hold, we should see another rally towards the 1708/09ES region.
However, in the event that a top is in place in truncated form, then our next lower support level is within the 1677/81ES region. A break down below that will confirm that this degree of upside has completed, and either we have begun wave 1 of the yellow c-wave down, or we are within green wave (4). Since the .382 retrace of green wave (3) is within the 1660ES region, we would need a break down below there in impulsive fashion to confirm that wave 1 down in yellow c is in play.
Once that 5 wave structure to the downside has completed – likely within the low 1600 region – then we should see a wave 2 retracement, which is the ideal time to short for much lower levels ahead.
So, for now, we still do not have confirmation of a top being in place, but it does seem as though we are very close.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Avi Gilburt.
