Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
It’s all well and good that the market is falling to pieces, but I hate days like this, because I’m concerned we are nearing yet another bounce. I hate bounces. We’ve had five years of them, and they always wind up doing the worst thing possible: moving to new highs. I am seriously thinking of covering positions right now (not all, but some), but I’m going to do it on a stock-by-stock basis. Suffice it to say that my positions have done quite well, but five years of agony can break one’s will to stay firmly in position. Maybe it’s sensible. Maybe it’s foolish. But empirical data suggests our bullish friends might be getting into position soon. The median line of the channel below has to be broken. If it is, then we can start to break the spirit of those bastard bulls. Stay tuned.
The SPX daily bollinger bands have narrowed considerably over the last few weeks, until yesterday morning there were less than thirty points between the upper and lower bands. This compression is a pinch, and these pinches will generally resolve into a move one way or the other that will ride the upper or lower band for several days. If the larger double-top on SPX breaks down today then that should play out to the downside. (more…)
Hi, today we are unfortunately able to post the entire analysis, but here is a brief mini post with one screenshot and some comments:
– the index yesterday tanked and reached price levels with good odds to go LONG: if you went LONG and there is a bounce today you will be profitable
– if the index goes lower today the price levels/odds from yesterday’s post are still valid
– we think there may be more downside after the bounce, so here below is a screenshot with price levels and odds, to show you where you can go SHORT again on the bounce: (more…)