I wrote last night about Bears in the Balance, musing that if we pushed a little higher, it was pretty much curtains for the bears. Well, that’s what happened: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed at the highest levels ever recorded. The NQ has burst above its pattern, yielding a very bullish breakout:
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Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Beneficial Mutual Bancorp (BNCL)
In the midst of this surging market, one megacap is shaping up nicely on the short side: 3M. There’s a fairly clean topping pattern floating at the top of this ascending pattern:
We’ve now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I’m expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I’ll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:
Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I’m expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:
I’m leaning towards a bull break over triangle resistance today. If we see a hard reversal down instead I’d note that a break below yesterday’s low at 2091.05 would trigger a double top target in the 2072 area at a retest of Monday’s low at 2072.37. A break below that would invite a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. I’d be surprised to see that but it’s worth bearing in mind.