A Moment of Truth

By -

NOTE: Springheel Jack left this brief all-text post, which I don’t think is complete, but I’ve written to him and haven’t heard back. Thus, I’m going to publish it as-is; apologies to Jack  – Tim

The trend day down yesterday broke the daily middle band and stopped at the 50 day MA. Support today is at the daily lower band at 2080 and the 2072.37 low. On a break below 2072.37 the spring high is most likely in, and the next big level would be double top support at 2039.69.Until we see that break below 2072.37 however, I’m still looking for the spring high in the one of the 2140 or 2170 areas. SPX daily chart.

Bonds have been falling even faster than I expected but there may be a rally coming shortly as falling wedge resistance for the current move was broken slightly at the highs yesterday. If that can follow through in the next day or two then we should see a decent rally. TLT 5min chart:

As I’ve been writing SPX has driven through the daily lower band and looks as though it may now make a run at the 2072.37 low. If that breaks then the spring high has most likely already been made. If we see a strong reversal start here then we should be starting a stronger move up than most we have seen recently.