Obviously SPX has delivered a lot of chop this year and remarkably, of the nineteen weekly candles so far, eleven have tested the weekly middle band with two near misses. Of the last ten weekly candles, six have fully tested the weekly middle band with two near misses. Will we see the same thing again this week? If so the weekly middle band is currently at 2077. SPX weekly chart:
Just to add to that though, over the last three Mondays SPX has made a new high in the morning and then fallen 2% or more afterwards. On all three Mondays this was following a Friday where RSI hit the overbought 70 level and hadn’t retraced much. We are looking at the same setup coming into this morning and it will be very interesting to see if the same happens again this week.; If SPX makes a marginal new all time high this morning and that is rejected, that could be the spring high that I am expecting very shortly. SPX 15min chart:
I’m looking for the spring high to be made this week, possibly this morning. After that I’m looking for a big decline to start on SPX with confirmation at a break of double top support at 2039. Support today is at the 50 hour MA at 2108 and rising support in the same area, and the daily middle band at 2106. If SPX break breaks those levels with some conviction then I’ll then be looking for a hit of the weekly middle band at 2077.
